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考虑变量滞后性的LSTM大坝变形安全监控预测模型

Prediction Model of LSTM Dam Deformation Safety Monitoring Considering Variable Hysteresis

  • 摘要: 为进一步提升大坝变形的预测精度,充分反映外部环境变量对大坝变形影响的滞后性,考虑影响大坝变形的变量时间滞后效应,利用长短期记忆(long short-term memory,LSTM)网络算法,提出一种考虑变量滞后性的改进LSTM的大坝变形预测模型。将输入数据分为通过LSTM存储块的延迟变量和不通过存储块的无延迟变量,使模型在物理解释上更合理;为提高预测模型的非线性表达能力,增加第二个隐藏层,使时间效应量等无延迟变量在最后一个时间步可直接使用,不需进行复杂的转换形成原始输入时所需的子序列;结合具体案例计算验证改进模型的可靠度和精度。结果表明:改进LSTM模型的平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方误差(MSE)较LSTM模型分别降低了11.94%,25.60%,具有更高的预测精度;改进模型的预测残差正负分布范围较LSTM模型小,预测值整体在实测值附近变化。改进LSTM模型的预测结果优于LSTM模型,能更合理地对大坝变形进行预测。

     

    Abstract: To further improve the prediction accuracy of dam deformation, fully reflecting the hysteresis of the impact of external environmental variables on dam deformation, and considering the time lag effect of variables affecting dam deformation, a modified LSTM (long short-term memory) dam deformation prediction model was proposed by using the LSTM algorithm. The input data was divided into delay variables passing through LSTM storage block and non delay variables not passing through storage block, which made the model more reasonable in physical interpretation. In order to improve the nonlinear expression ability of the prediction model, a second hidden layer was added, so that the time effect and other non delayed variables could be directly used in the last time step without complex transformation to form the subsequence required for the original input. The reliability and accuracy of the improved model were verified by calculating a specific case. The results show that the mean absolute error (MAE) and mean square error (MSE) of the improved LSTM model are 11.94% and 25.60% lower than those of the LSTM model, respectively, and have higher prediction accuracy.The positive and negative distribution range of the prediction residuals of the improved model is smaller than that of the LSTM model, and the prediction values generally change near the measured values, which can more reasonably predict the dam deformation. The prediction results of the improved LSTM model are better than those of LSTM model, which can more reasonably predict the dam deformation.

     

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