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基于直觉模糊集与后悔理论的舆情危机响应方案动态调整方法

Dynamic Adjustment Method for Public Opinion Crisis Response Plans Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets and Regret Theory

  • 摘要: 针对舆情危机中多源舆情信息异步涌现引发的态势演变难题,提出一种融合直觉模糊集与后悔理论的动态响应调整方法。首先,运用直觉模糊集对舆情信息的异构属性数据进行同构化,建立考虑信息模糊性与可信度的直觉模糊评价矩阵,并基于直觉模糊熵优化属性权重分配;其次,引入后悔理论计算决策者对方案实施后舆情危机态势变化、方案启动与调整成本及应对损失的综合感知效用,据此得到备选方案的优劣次序;最后通过案例应用和方法对比验证本文方法的有效性。结果表明:本文方法在舆情信息的异构属性层面能够有效捕捉决策者的后悔规避行为特征和舆情危机态势演变过程,从而在响应方案调整中发挥关键作用,同时证实了兼顾决策者心理行为特征(后悔规避)与危机态势跃迁机制,可显著提升决策的科学性与实战适配性。此外,基于舆情信息异构属性及其融合方法,还可考虑多源信息传播中的竞合结构及其对异构属性的影响,以此建立态势更新机制并研究调整时机;同时从事件链角度探索舆情危机与前导渐变型突发事件相互作用下,综合响应方案在多阶段排序、动态调整时机和方向上的决策问题。

     

    Abstract: To address the challenge of situation evolution caused by asynchronous emergence of multi-source public opinion information in public opinion crises, a dynamic response adjustment method integrating intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFS) and regret theory was proposed. Firstly, IFS was employed to homogenize heterogeneous attribute data of public opinion information, and an intuitionistic fuzzy evaluation matrix considering information fuzziness and credibility was constructed, with attribute weight allocation optimized based on intuitionistic fuzzy entropy. Secondly, regret theory was introduced to calculate decision-makers’ perceived utility regarding the evolution of the crisis situation after plan implementation; subsequently, this utility was combined with perceived utilities concerning plan initiation and adjustment costs as well as response losses to compute the comprehensive perceived utility, thereby obtaining the priority order of alternative plans. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method was verified through case application and comparative analysis with other methods. The results show that the proposed method can effectively reflect the significant role of decision-makers’ regret-avoidance behavior characteristics and the evolution of public opinion crisis situations in the decision-making process of response plan adjustments, from the heterogeneous attribute level of public opinion information. The results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively reflects the critical role of decision-makers’ regret-aversion behavioral characteristics and the evolution of the public opinion crisis situation in response plan adjustment decisions from the heterogeneous attribute level of public opinion information. It is confirmed that simultaneously considering psychological behavioral characteristics (regret aversion) and crisis situation transition mechanisms significantly enhances decision-making scientificity and operational applicability. Furthermore, beyond the methodology developed based on heterogeneous attributes and their fusion of public opinion information, the competitive-cooperative structure in multi-source information dissemination and its impact on heterogeneous attributes can be considered for establishing a situation updating mechanism and investigating adjustment timing. Simultaneously, the multi-stage sequencing, adjustment timing, and directional aspects of comprehensive response plans are explored from an event-chain perspective by examining interactions between public opinion crises and their precursor gradual-onset emergencies.

     

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