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机器学习在板坯质量预测中的研究进展与展望

Research Progress and Outlook of Machine Learning in Slab Quality Prediction

  • 摘要: 板坯质量预测是优化钢铁生产流程、提升产品性能的关键环节。传统基于冶金机理的预测模型主要依赖物理规律与经验公式,难以适应高自动化生产环境中的复杂非线性关系,存在预测精度低、泛化能力弱等固有局限。随着机器学习技术的快速发展,单一模型通过特征学习与复杂非线性拟合能力,在裂纹风险评估、偏析预测等具体任务中展现了良好的性能优势,但仍面临高维数据过拟合、样本类别不平衡等挑战。为了克服这些限制,集成学习模型通过多弱学习器协同优化,显著提升了预测系统的准确性与鲁棒性,尤其是在处理工艺参数强耦合及强噪声干扰的工业场景中表现突出。为此,本文概述传统质量预测模型的典型建模方法及其存在的应用局限,综述神经网络等单一模型与随机森林等集成模型在板坯质量预测中的研究进展,分析集成质量预测模型在预测精度和工程适用方面的优势。在此基础上,探讨动态建模优化、小样本增强学习、轻量化模型部署、可解释性提升及全流程协同预测等关键技术的未来发展方向,为构建具有高精度、强适应性的新一代板坯质量智能预测体系提供理论支撑与技术路径。

     

    Abstract: Slab quality prediction is the key link to optimize steel production process and improve product performance. The traditional prediction model based on metallurgical mechanism mainly relies on physical laws and empirical formulas, which is difficult to adapt to the complex nonlinear relationship in the highly automated production environment, and has inherent limitations such as low prediction accuracy and weak generalization ability. With the rapid development of machine learning technology, the single model has shown good performance advantages in crack risk assessment, segregation prediction and other specific tasks through feature learning and complex nonlinear fitting ability, but it still faces challenges such as high-dimensional data over fitting and unbalanced sample categories. In order to overcome these limitations, the integrated learning model significantly improves the accuracy and robustness of the prediction system through the collaborative optimization of multiple weak learners, especially in the industrial scene dealing with strong coupling of process parameters and strong noise interference. Therefore, the typical modeling methods of traditional quality prediction models were outlined, along with their application limitations. The research progress of single model (e.g., neural networks) and integrated models (e.g., random forests) in slab quality prediction was reviewed. The advantages of integrated quality prediction model in prediction accuracy and engineering application were analyzed. Based on these findings, the future development direction of key technologies were explored, including dynamic modeling optimization, small sample reinforcement learning, lightweight model deployment, interpretability improvement and whole process collaborative prediction are discussed, which provides theoretical support and technical path for the construction of a new generation of slab quality intelligent prediction system with high precision and strong adaptability.

     

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