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基于优化VMD与TCN−ISE−Pyraformer的短期电力负荷预测

Short-term Power Load Forecasting Based on Optimized VMD and TCN−ISE−Pyraformer

  • 摘要: 针对传统预测模型在捕捉多特征负荷数据时难以兼顾全局和局部特征的问题,提出1种基于麻雀搜索算法(SSA)优化变分模态分解(VMD)与改进挤压–激励(ISE)模块、时序卷积网络(TCN)和Pyraformer的组合预测模型。首先,采用SSA优化VMD参数,将波性较强的动态负荷序列分解为多个平稳的模态分量,以降低原始数据的非平稳性;随后,将分解得到的本征模态函数输入TCN以提取局部特征,并通过ISE模块自适应分配权重,有效抑制噪声干扰;最后,将加权后的特征输入Pyraformer以捕获全局特征,并输出最终的预测结果。为验证模型性能,采用2个地区的真实电力负荷数据集进行仿真实验。结果表明:在2组算例中,该模型的决定系数分别达0.994 9与0.984 2,均优于对比模型。这一结果验证了所提模型在同时捕捉多特征负荷数据全局和局部特征方面的优势,展现出更高的预测精度和稳定性。

     

    Abstract: Aiming at the problem that traditional prediction models struggle to simultaneously capture global and local features of multi-feature load data, a hybrid prediction model based on sparrow search algorithm (SSA)-optimized variational mode decomposition (VMD) and improved squeeze-and-excitation (ISE) module, and temporal convolutional network (TCN) and Pyraformer was proposed. Firstly, the SSA was employed to optimize VMD parameters, enabling VMD to highly volatile load sequences into a set of relatively stable modal components to reduce the non-stationarity of the original data. Then, the obtained intrinsic mode functions was input into the TCN model to capture the local features of the data, while the ISE module adaptively assigned appropriate weights to the extracted features, thereby reducing the impact of redundant information on the prediction results. Finally, the weighted data was fed into the Pyraformer model to capture the global features and generated the final prediction results.To validate the mode’s performance, real-world power load datasets from two regions were used for simulation experiments. The results show that in both cases, the proposed model achieves the coefficients of determination is 0.9949 and 0.9842, respectively, outperforming other comparative models. This verifies the proposed model’s superiority in simultaneously capture global and local features of multi-feature load data, demonstrating higher prediction accuracy and stability.

     

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