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基于LSTM-ChebyKAN的短期电力负荷预测

Short-term Power Load Forecasting Based on LSTM-ChebyKAN

  • 摘要: 针对短期电力负荷预测中传统模型对复杂非线性关系建模能力不足的问题,本文提出一种融合长短期记忆网络(long short-term memory,LSTM)与切比雪夫多项式(Chebyshev polynomials)基函数网络的新型混合架构——LSTM-ChebyKAN模型。该模型采用数值稳定性更优的切比雪夫多项式替代传统Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN)中的样条函数,构建ChebyKAN模块,在保留LSTM时序建模能力的同时,显著增强了非线性函数的逼近能力与训练稳定性。基于英国国家电网2009—2024年实际负荷数据的实验表明:所提模型在预测精度上全面优于RNN、GRU、LSTM及LSTM-KAN等基线模型;与性能最强的LSTM-KAN相比,其均方误差(MSE)降低约16.7%、平均绝对误差(MAE)下降约12.7%、平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)降低约5.9%、决定系数(R2)也得到显著提升。进一步的跨季节泛化实验验证了其鲁棒性优势。结果表明,LSTM-ChebyKAN模型能够更精准、稳定地捕捉复杂非线性负荷特征,为提升短期负荷预测的准确性与实际应用可靠性提供了一种有效的技术路径。

     

    Abstract: To address the limitation of traditional models in accurately modeling complex nonlinear relationships in traditional short-term load forecasting models, a novel hybrid architecture integrating long short-term memory (LSTM) networks with a Chebyshev polynomial-based function network and termed the LSTM-ChebyKAN model—was proposed. In this model, the ChebyKAN module was constructed by replacing the spline functions used in traditional Kolmogorov-Arnold network (KAN) with numerically stable Chebyshev polynomials. This design retained the temporal modeling capability of LSTM while significantly enhancing both function approximation capacity and training stability. Experimental validation was conducted using actual load data from the UK National Grid spanning 2009—2024. The results indicate that the proposed model outperforms baseline models such as RNN, GRU, LSTM, and LSTM-KAN across all forecasting accuracy metrics. Compared with the strongest competitor, LSTM-KAN, the proposed model achieves a reduction of approximately 16.7% in mean squared error (MSE), a decrease of about 12.7% in mean absolute error (MAE), a reduction of around 5.9% in mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and a significant improvement in the coefficient of determination (R2). Further cross-seasonal generalization experiments confirm its superior robustness. These findings demonstrate that the LSTM-ChebyKAN model captures complex nonlinear load characteristics more accurately and stably, offering an effective technical pathway to enhance the accuracy and practical reliability of short-term load forecasting.

     

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