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融合恐慌情绪与环境熟悉度的地铁站应急疏散仿真模型研究

Simulation Study on Emergency Evacuation in Subway Stations Considering Panic Psychology and Environment Familiarity

  • 摘要: 针对传统行人疏散模型在刻画个体行为差异及群体情绪传播机制方面的不足,以地铁站突发公共安全事件为背景,研究行人应急疏散效率。在元胞自动机模型基础上,引入环境熟悉度以反映行人疏散行为的个体差异,并加入扶梯速度因子以增强模型对实际场景的适用性;同时,结合SIR(susceptible-infective-removed)传染病模型模拟恐慌情绪在人群中的动态传播过程,构建融合环境熟悉度与恐慌情绪影响的疏散仿真模型。以南京市A地铁站站台为例进行仿真,分析上述两类因素各自的作用机制及其交互效应对整体疏散过程的影响。结果表明:恐慌情绪的扩散会显著延缓疏散进程,使总疏散时间增加约35%;环境熟悉度对疏散效率具有显著正向影响,熟悉度较高的个体疏散时间平均可降低15%~40%;此外,随着恐慌阈值的提高,疏散时间总体呈下降趋势,并在达到某一临界值后趋于稳定。本研究通过集成认知熟悉度与心理情绪因素,弥补了传统模型对个体行为异质性刻画不足的缺陷,为地铁站应急疏散方案的精细化制定提供理论参考依据。

     

    Abstract: Abstracts: Aiming at the shortcomings of traditional pedestrian evacuation models in depicting individual behavioral differences and group emotion transmission mechanisms, the efficiency of pedestrian emergency evacuation was studied against the background of sudden public safety incidents in subway stations. Based on the cellular automaton model, environmental familiarity was introduced to reflect individual differences in pedestrian evacuation behaviors, and an escalator speed factor was incorporated to enhance the model’s applicability to real scenarios; simultaneously, combined with the SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) infectious disease model, the dynamic spread of panic emotion within the crowd was simulated, thereby constructing an evacuation simulation model that integrated the effects of environmental familiarity and panic emotion. Taking the platform of Nanjing Metro Station A as an example, a simulation was conducted to analyze the respective mechanisms of the two aforementioned factors and their interactive effects on the overall evacuation process. The results indicate that the evacuation process is significantly slowed down by the spread of panic, with the total evacuation time increasing by approximately 35%. Environmental familiarity is observed to have a significant positive impact on evacuation efficiency, as the evacuation time of highly familiar individuals is reduced by an average of 15% to 40%. Furthermore, as the panic threshold increases, the evacuation time generally shows a decreasing trend, stabilizing after reaching a certain critical value. By integrating cognitive familiarity and psychological emotional factors, this study addresses the insufficient characterization of individual behavioral heterogeneity in traditional models, providing a theoretical basis for the refined development of emergency evacuation plans in subway stations.

     

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