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政策工具与物流企业低空服务拓展的演化博弈分析

Evolutionary Game Analysis of Policy Tools and the Expansion of Low-altitude Services by Logistics Enterprises

  • 摘要: 低空经济的快速发展与政策红利的持续释放,给空域监管体系带来了严峻挑战。为应对这一挑战,基于演化博弈理论,构建政府与物流企业间的有限理性动态博弈模型。通过设定政府执行成本、企业合规及违规成本、政策激励、违规处罚、风险损失、社会效益及企业收益等参数,推导出双方策略选择的复制动态方程,并结合局部稳定性分析,探讨系统可能达成的均衡状态及关键参数的影响机制。结果发现:惩罚力度过高反而诱导企业违规;单纯提升监管效率难以有效提升合规率,需政策协同;相较于单纯加大惩罚或监管强度,抑制企业违规收益或提高合规补贴能更显著地促进合规行为。结论表明,政企策略演化受多重参数协同影响,政策工具设计应注重协同性与差异化。本研究为统筹安全底线与发展活力的低空经济监管政策提供了理论依据。

     

    Abstract: The rapid development of the low-altitude economy and the continuous release of policy dividends posed severe challenges to the airspace regulatory system. To address this challenge, a dynamic game model of bounded rationality between the government and logistics enterprises was constructed based on evolutionary game theory. By setting parameters such as government enforcement costs, enterprise compliance and violation costs, policy incentives, penalties for violations, risk losses, social benefits, and enterprise revenues, the replicated dynamic equations for the strategy choices of both parties were derived. Combined with local stability analysis, the possible equilibrium states of the system and the influence mechanisms of key parameters were explored. It is found that excessive penalties may instead encourage enterprises to violate regulations; merely improving regulatory efficiency is insufficient to enhance compliance rates, requiring policy coordination; compared with strengthening penalties or regulatory intensity, curbing enterprises’ illegal gains or increasing compliance subsidies is more effective in promoting compliance. The conclusions indicate that the strategy evolution of governments and enterprises is jointly influenced by multiple parameters, and the design of policy tools should emphasize synergy and differentiation. This study provides a theoretical basis for low-altitude economic regulatory policies that balance safety bottom lines and development vitality.

     

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