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基于PSO-GWO混合优化模糊神经网络的含磷钢终点磷含量预测

Prediction of Phosphorus Content at the End Point of Phosphorus-containing Steel Based on PSO-GWO Hybrid Optimization Of Fuzzy Neural Network

  • 摘要: 针对转炉冶炼含磷钢终点磷含量波动大,易导致成品磷成分不稳定及合金化成本增加等问题,提出一种基于粒子群优化(particle swarm optimization,PSO)与灰狼优化(gray wolf optimization,GWO)混合策略的模糊神经网络(PSO-GWO-FNN)预测模型,以实现对终点磷含量的精准预测。该模型融合PSO的快速收敛特性与GWO的强全局搜索能力,对模糊神经网络(fuzzy neural network,FNN)的隶属函数参数进行高效稳健的优化,从而提升模型对冶炼过程模糊不确定信息的自适应学习能力。实验结果表明:传统FNN模型在误差±0.015%范围内的命中率为78%,均方根误差为0.011 47,决定系数R2为0.60;经PSO或GWO分别优化后,模型命中率均提高至81%,均方根误差分别为0.011 38和0.011 35,R2分别提升至0.62和0.63;而本文提出的PSO-GWO-FNN混合模型在相同误差范围内的命中率达84%,均方根误差降至0.010 59,R2提升至0.70,各项预测精度指标均显著优于单一优化模型。该混合优化模型可为含磷钢冶炼过程的终点磷含量精准控制提供可靠参考。

     

    Abstract: To address the issues of significant fluctuations in endpoint phosphorus content during the converter smelting of phosphorus-containing steel, which often lead to instability in final product phosphorus composition and increased alloying costs, a fuzzy neural network prediction model based on a hybrid strategy of particle swarm optimization (PSO) and grey wolf optimization (GWO), termed PSO-GWO-FNN, was proposed for the accurate prediction of endpoint phosphorus content. By integrating the rapid convergence characteristic of PSO with the strong global search capability of GWO, the model was constructed to efficiently and robustly optimize the membership function parameters of the fuzzy neural network (FNN), thereby enhancing its adaptive learning capability regarding the fuzzy and uncertain information inherent in the smelting process. Experimental results demonstrate that a hit rate of 78% within an error range of ±0.015% is achieved by the traditional FNN model, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.011 47 and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.60. After optimization by PSO or GWO individually, the hit rate is increased to 81% for both models, with RMSEs of 0.011 38 and 0.011 35, and R2 values of 0.62 and 0.63, respectively. In contrast, a hit rate of 84% within the same error range is achieved by the proposed PSO-GWO-FNN hybrid model, with the RMSE reduced to 0.010 59 and the R2 improved to 0.70, and all prediction accuracy indicators are found to be significantly superior to those of the single optimization models. A reliable reference for the precise control of endpoint phosphorus content in the smelting process of phosphorus-containing steel can be provided by the hybrid optimization model.

     

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