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住房公积金对潜在住房消费的区域差异性影响

Influence of the Regional Difference of Housing Provident Fund on Potential Housing Consumption

  • 摘要: 基于2016年中国住房公积金制度调研的问卷调查数据,构建logit回归模型,实证研究住房公积金对暂未购房者潜在住房消费行为的区域差异性影响。结果表明:暂未购房者作为潜在住房消费群体,住房公积金对其购房意愿、购房时间、购房用途及购房压力均有显著影响,且在不同城市具有异质性作用。在一、二线城市住房公积金并不能进一步加强其购房意愿,无法缓解购房压力,但明显促进了其短期购房行为,而相对于其他城市而言,一线城市购房用于投资的占比更大;二、三线及以下城市中公积金对购房消费用途有明显正向作用;公积金对三线及以下城市居民购房意愿和行为作用效果均显著。因此,需因城施策,通过制度改革进一步发挥住房公积金对住房消费的积极作用,平衡公积金对各线城市的支持力度,促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。

     

    Abstract: Based on the survey data of China's housing provident fund system in 2016, a logit regression model was constructed to study the influence of housing provident fund on the regional difference of potential housing consumption behavior of non-buyers. The results show that, as a potential housing consumer group, the housing provident fund has a significant impact on their willingness to buy a house, the time of buying a house, the use of a house and the pressure on the purchase of a house, and it has a heterogeneous effect in different cities. Firstly, in the first and second-tier cities, the housing provident fund can not further strengthen its willingness to buy a house, and cannot relieve the pressure of buying a house, but it has obviously promoted its short-term housing purchase behavior, and compared with other cities, the proportion of first-tier cities buying houses for investment is larger; secondly, in cities of the second-and third-tier and below, the accumulation fund has a positive effect on the consumption of housing purchase in cities; Thirdly, the effect of provident fund on the willingness and behavior of urban residents to buy a house in the third-tier and below is remarkable. Therefore, it is necessary to give full play to the positive role of housing accumulation fund in promoting housing consumption through system reform, balance the support of provident fund to all cities, and promote the steady and healthy development of real estate market.

     

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