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我国COVID-19日新增确诊病例存在“泡沫”行为吗?

Is There a “Bubble” Behavior in the Daily Newly Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in China?

  • 摘要: 为揭示我国新冠病毒肺炎(COVID-19)发展态势,以我国2020年1月3日至2020年12月31日的日新增确诊病例为研究对象,利用描述统计分析其变动趋势,使用右侧递归上确界ADF类(SADF)检验方法检测是否存在“泡沫”行为。结果显示:在疫情初期,日新增确诊病例呈爆发式发展,2020年3月份后,疫情转入具有周期性的低水平波动状态;日新增确诊病例序列存在显著的“泡沫”行为,该序列存在长短不同的两种周期行为,长周期分别为12 d和8 d,短周期分别为2 d和1 d,进一步验证了该序列存在明显的波动周期。鉴于目前的疫情形势和泡沫周期演变规律,认为未来疫情可能会出现新的波动周期。

     

    Abstract: To reveal the development trend of COVID-19 in China, the daily newly confirmed cases from January 3, 2020 to December 31, 2020 were selected as the sample. Descriptive statistical analysis and right recursive supremum augmented dickey fuller test were used to analyze the changing trend and detect the existence of "bubble" behavior with the newly confirmed cases. The results show that at the initial stage of the epidemic, the number of daily newly confirmed cases exhibits an explosive development, but after March 2020, the epidemic enters a cyclical fluctuation with low level. The daily new confirmed cases exist several significant "bubble" behaviors with two different cycle, including 12 d and 8 d respectively for a long period as well as 2 d and 1 d respectively for a short cycle, which further verifies the sequence has obvious fluctuation cycle. In view of the current epidemic situation and the law of bubble cycle evolution, it is thought that the epidemic situation is likely to appear a new wave cycle in the future.

     

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