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基于风险矩阵的房地产市场风险综合评估方法

Comprehensive Evaluation Method of Real Estate Market Risk Based on Risk Matrix

  • 摘要: 采用风险矩阵与Borda序值法相结合的研究方法,从价格风险、库存风险、资金风险、政策与环境风险以及信用风险等5个方面构建房地产市场风险的综合评估指标体系;以2019年合肥市房地产市场为例,对其各风险指标的概率等级、影响等级和相应的Borda序值进行统计分析;根据各风险指标的具体等级与排序,提出促进房地产市场稳定发展的相应对策建议。结果表明:供需水平、投机性、投资信托基金、财务状况和市场环境是房地产市场主要的风险因素;国家和政府要规范政策和法律环境、房地产行业及其企业要规范房地产市场秩序和自身经营行为,社会公众要理性看待房地产市场变化。

     

    Abstract: Using the research method combining the risk matrix and the Borda sequence value method, a comprehensive evaluation index system for real estate market risks was constructed from five aspects: price risk, inventory risk, capital risk, policy and environmental risk, and credit risk. Taking the real estate market in Hefei in 2019 as an example, statistical analysis of the probability levels, impact levels, and corresponding Borda sequence values of various risk indicators was carried out. According to the specific level and ranking of each risk index, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to promote the stable development of the real estate market were put forward, and the promotion of the stable development of the real estate market corresponding countermeasures and suggestions were proposed. The results show that the level of supply and demand, speculative nature, investment trust funds, financial status and market environment are the main risk factors in the real estate market; The state and the government must regulate the policy and legal environment, the real estate industry and its enterprises must regulate the order of the real estate market and their own business behaviors, and the he public must rationally view changes in the real estate market.

     

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