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基于PSO-WNN模型的超短期风速预测及其误差校正

Ultra-short Term Wind Speed Prediction Based on PSO-WNN Model and its Error Correction

  • 摘要: 小波神经网络(wavelet neural network,WNN)具有多分辨率局部时频特性,在风速预测中得到了广泛应用,但模型参数的优化选择是一难点,为此提出一种基于PSO(粒子群算法)-WNN的超短期风速预测模型。引入粒子位置变化量与二阶振荡环节改进粒子群算法,以平衡粒子群的全局搜索能力和局部改良能力;采用改进的粒子群算法优化WNN模型参数,进而对风速进行超短期预测;为进一步减小预测误差,分析风速预测的模型误差及其相关因素,并采用一阶线性回归法进行误差校正。算例表明,所提PSO-WNN预测模型及误差校正措施能够有效提高风速预测模型的泛化性能和预测精度。

     

    Abstract: Though wavelet neural network(WNN) was widely used in wind speed prediction because of its multiresolution local time-frequency characteristics, the optimization of model parameters is also a difficulty. As a result, a prediction modle of ultra-short term wind speed based on WNN and particle swarm optimization(PSO) algorithm was proposed. The PSO algorithm was improved by introducing the change in position of particle and the second-order oscillation to balance the global search ability and local improvement ability of particle swarm. Then the parameters of WNN model were optimized by the improved PSO algorithm, and the ultra-short term wind speed was preducted. In order to further reduce the prediction error, the model error of wind speed prediction and its related factors were analyzed, and the first-order linear regression method was used for error correction. The example shows that the proposed PSO-WNN prediction model and error correction measures can effectively improve the generalization performance and prediction accuracy of the wind speed prediction model.

     

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