Analysis of Dynamic Characteristics of RMB Exchange Rate and Its Transformation Path Before and After DigitizationMarkov Transformation Model Based on Three Mechanisms

A three-mechanism Markov conversion autoregression model of the RMB/USD exchange rate were established through Chow test. The exchange rate data of RMB/USD from June 25, 2019 to April 30, 2021 was selected, and May 29, 2020 was taken as the node of RMB digitization. An empirical analysis of the transmission characteristics of the exchange rate mechanism was carried out in the two phases before and after the RMB digitization. Then, the subjective analytic hierarchy process was used to calculate the impact weight of RMB digitization on the indicators of the current financial system, and analyze the impact of RMB digitization on the current financial system. The results show that before the digitization of RMB, the residence time of exchange rate in each mechanism is continuous and highly “self-sustaining”. After the digitization of RMB, the dynamic conversion of exchange rate in China is more frequent, and the impact of external information is more intense. The steady progress of RMB digitization has varying degrees of impact on all aspects of the current financial system, and has a more significant impact on exchange rate changes.