Inertia Interval of Consumer’s Expected Consumption Under the Ambiguous Information

In order to reduce the ambiguity degree of information in the consumer market and promote consumption growth, the information accuracy was introduced to measure the ambiguity degree of information, and a new expected consumption model with random income was proposed. Based on the difference between the predicting price of the commodity and its future price, the accuracy interval of the ambiguous information was obtained, and the max-min expected consumption model of consumer was constructed. The closed solution of the model was obtained by using the stochastic control method, and the expected consumption behavior of consumers was analyzed. Finally, it comparatively did an empirical study based on sample of the daily closing and opening prices of the bulk commodity energy sectors in China, the United States and France from January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021. The results show that under the ambiguous information, consumer’s expected consumption behavior exists the inertia interval. The uncertainty degree of market is lower or the stability of commodity price is stronger, the inertia interval is smaller. The ambiguity degree of information is lower, the price effect is more obvious. The uncertainty of future random income can promote the expected consumption behavior. Compared with the international consumer market, the inert range of the domestic consumer market is relatively small. This study can provide a new analytical framework for the study of consumer expected consumption behavior, and provide empirical evidence for the prosperity of domestic consumer market construction.