Research on Influence of “Dual Credit” Policy on Production Decision of Automobile Supply Chain under Implicit Subsidy

With the cancellation of national subsidies and the transition to local subsidies, China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) policy is currently in a phase characterized by implicit subsidies and the parallel implementation of the dual credit policy. Against this backdrop, four decision models for the automotive supply chain composed of traditional automakers, retailers, and consumers were established to analyze the multiple impacts of market and policy factors on production decisions in the automotive supply chain. The results show that compared with no subsidies, implicit subsidies lead to higher prices for NEVs but facilitate their diffusion in the market. After the withdrawal of implicit subsidies, the intervention of credit prices can lower the prices of NEVs and continue to boost their sales, further compensating for the loss of implicit subsidies.In scenarios where fuel consumption standards are not met, traditional automakers have a higher reliance on subsidies. During the policy transition stage, implementing emission reductions benefits the steady development of traditional automakers. The growth of credit prices and credit ratios is beneficial for traditional automakers to transform from conventional energy to NEVs. Setting higher point prices is more conducive to promoting the development of the new energy vehicle industry than setting higher point ratios.In the stage of policy transition, traditional automotive companies should focus on enhancing their own research and development capabilities while actively stimulating demand from consumers. Policy makers should maintain a diverse and synergistic approach to policies addressing both supply and demand, aiming not only to facilitate the transformation of old and new forces but also to invigorate consumer spending.